Friday, January 4, 2008

Obama-Time: Sen. Barack Obama Wins in Iowa; Edwards 2nd, Clinton a close 3rd

Obama-philes everywhere are celebrating their man's victory in the first meaningful vote of the presidential election season. Congratulations to Sen. Obama on a hugely important win in Iowa.

There is plenty of analysis on the race and what this means to the other candidates, but for now it's Barack Obama's day. A well-fought, well-earned victory.

I will say that the other interesting development is Edwards' second-place finish. While a third place finish would probably have doomed him, he now has a claim to being the "alternative" to Obama in a way that Hillary is not. But he now has to win or come in second in either New Hampshire (unlikely) or South Carolina (more likely) in order to stay alive until Super Tuesday. His biggest problem (that Clinton doesn't face) is cash. He doesn't have enough of it compared to his rivals. Will he get any kind of bounce? Can shoe-leather and message make up for lack of money? Traditionally, of course, the answer is no but if Edwards continues to present an obstacle for Clinton then Obama may cruise to the nomination.

And, what about Sen. Clinton? She is a savvy, well-financed candidate with more than a few tricks still left up her sleeve. No doubt she will be much tougher to beat on Super Tuesday when large states (California, New York, Florida, Michigan, etc.) start to vote.

And, what will Vermonters decide to do if the race is still up for grabs in March? Maybe our little primary won't be so inconsequential after all?!

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